St Barbara Limited’s Simberi Expansion Project Delivers 2.2 Moz Gold, US$717M NPV & 62% IRR Amid Lower Operating Costs
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
at
8:21 am
St Barbara Limited’s updated Simberi Expansion Project plan now projects 2.2 Moz of gold production with increasing annual outputs and lower operating costs. The pre-feasibility work highlights a robust economic profile, targeting a final investment decision by H1 FY26 that could boost long-term shareholder value.
St Barbara Limited has advanced its Simberi Expansion Project with pre-feasibility work that supports a 13‐year life of mine plan and significantly improved production profiles. The updated study now outlines total gold production of about 2.2 million ounces between FY26 and FY38, with annual outputs expected to rise from roughly 90 thousand ounces in FY27 to over 220 thousand ounces from FY28 onwards. The project’s revised modelling indicates robust economics—using a gold price of US$2,500 per ounce, the post‐tax net present value is estimated at US$717 million with a post‐tax internal rate of return of 62% and a payback period of approximately 3.6 years. Notably, the all‐in sustaining cost is projected to decrease to the range of US$1,200–1,300 per ounce from FY29 to FY36 while the initial project capital is estimated at US$235 million, with additional pre‐expansion growth capital of US$40–60 million planned for early works.
The update incorporates detailed technical studies and design modifications. The completed AACE Class 4 Plant Study, performed by Pitch Black Group, alongside extensive metallurgical testwork, suggests an increase in sulphide gold recovery from 82.4% to 88.8%. Production will eventually shift from processing free-milling oxide ore to treating fresh sulphide ore, necessitating significant upgrades to the comminution circuit including the installation of a new 5.8MW ball mill and a flotation circuit to produce a gold-bearing concentrate. The study also presents a sensitivity analysis showing that changes in gold price, capital expenditure, and operating costs can materially affect project NPV and IRR, further underlining the project’s exposure to commodity price shifts.
Early works are progressing with multiple components already underway. Contracts have been awarded for the new ball mill, and design work for a new ROM pad, haul road, and wharf are in progress. St Barbara is also advancing camp expansion and additional mining fleet upgrades to support the ramp-up. However, the project timeline remains contingent on resolving tax assessment matters in Papua New Guinea and securing a timely extension of the mining lease, which is critical for maintaining the project’s proposed schedule.
The news presents both bullish and bearish signals for investors. On the bullish side, the project’s impressive production targets, low cost profile, strong economic indicators, and scaled-up infrastructure investments bolster the company’s long-term value proposition. The enhanced metallurgical recoveries and preparation for sulphide processing suggest improved revenue streams even at moderately high gold prices. Conversely, bearish aspects include near-term uncertainties such as pending tax issues, the environmental and regulatory challenges typical of operations in Papua New Guinea, and the risk that delays in mining lease renewal or other approvals could postpone the final investment decision. Traders should weigh these factors carefully when assessing the short-term implications versus the long-term growth potential of St Barbara Limited.