Origin Energy Limited has updated its fiscal year 2025 guidance amid stable market conditions and a supportive regulatory framework. The company now expects its Energy Markets underlying EBITDA to be in the range of $1,300 to $1,400 million, nudging the lower limit upward from the previous forecast. This revision reflects operational improvements and benefits from the wholesale portfolio, alongside strong generation performance, robust electricity volumes, and lower green certificate costs. In contrast, the guidance for Origin Energy’s share of Octopus Energy underperforms relative to earlier expectations. The latest forecast points to an underlying EBITDA loss between $0 and $100 million, a shift from the prior projection of a marginally positive contribution of up to $100 million. Unseasonably warm weather in the United Kingdom during March and April, which led to the third warmest April since 1884, contributed to a significant drop in electricity and gas volumes and an approximate $50 million earnings impact on Origin Energy’s share. Despite these setbacks, the Octopus segment shows potential: UK retail experienced organic growth exceeding 10% to reach 7.5 million customers, non-UK retail doubled its accounts to 2.5 million, and the Kraken business now boasts around 74 million contracted accounts following the acquisition of a major customer in the United States. Bullish sentiment highlights Origin Energy’s enhanced performance in its core energy markets driven by operational gains and favorable market conditions. Investors may also view the continued growth in Octopus Energy’s UK retail and Kraken segments as a sign of long-term potential despite near-term hurdles. Meanwhile, a bearish perspective focuses on the reduced guidance for the Octopus segment, driven by external weather-related variables and regulatory factors, as well as the financial impact from one-off government measures. Both sides underscore the importance of closely monitoring market developments and seasonal trends as Origin Energy navigates the fiscal year.