Critical Metals Corporation’s Tanbreez Project Achieves $3 Billion NPV & 180% IRR – A Game-Changer for Western Rare Earth Supply Chains
Thursday, May 29, 2025
at
9:20 am
Critical Metals Corporation’s Scoping Study on the Tanbreez Project in Southern Greenland reveals a projected NPV of about US$3 billion and a 180% IRR. The world‐class rare earth deposit, with low capex and deep-water access, is set to play a strategic role in Western supply chains.
Critical Metals Corp has released a comprehensive Scoping Study on its Tanbreez Project in Southern Greenland—a rare earth asset that could become a major supplier of both heavy and light rare earth elements (REEs) urgently needed by Western industries. According to the study, only 1% of the project’s 4.7‐billion‑metric‑tonne mineralized kakortokite host has been “tested” so far, representing an indicated mineral resource of roughly 45 million tonnes grading 0.4% total rare earth oxides (TREO) with about 27% heavy rare earth oxides. The study projects an initial production capability of around 85,000 tonnes per annum of REO, scalable up to as much as 425,000 tonnes per year through a modular expansion plan.
The technical indicators are impressive: at discount rates of 15% and 12.5% the pre‑tax Net Present Value (NPV) is estimated to be approximately US$2.8–$3.6 billion, with an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) reaching nearly 180%. Even after accounting for tax at around 25% of EBITDA, the NPV remains in the US$1.8–$2.2 billion range, with a payback period of roughly three years. The project’s design features open‑pit mining using a dry beneficiation process—a method that avoids the challenges of water handling in cold climates—and looks to produce both the critical eudialyte concentrate and two industrial by‑products, feldspar and arfvedsonite.
Strategically, the Tanbreez Project is underpinned by robust permitting (with an exploitation license effective until 2050) and significant logistical advantages. Its coastal location adjacent to deep‑water fjords provides year‑round shipping routes, and it is designed to align with Western supply chain objectives, meeting critical mineral needs for defence and clean energy technologies. The modular processing concept, which foresees eventual hydrometallurgical refining in either the United States or the European Union, adds flexibility while minimizing upfront capital requirements. The study also emphasizes low radioactivity levels, which reduces environmental concerns and regulatory hurdles.
From a sentiment perspective, the announcement offers strong bullish signs. The exceptionally high NPV and IRR, coupled with a fast payback period and the strategic advantage of a Western‑based HREE source, make Tanbreez an attractive long‑term investment target. Its scalable development plan and dual revenue streams from both the rare earth concentrate and the industrial mineral by‑products further enhance its economic appeal. However, cautious investors should note that the study is preliminary in nature, with uncertainties in capital and operating cost estimates—typically within a ±30% to ±50% range—and dependence on successful additional drilling and funding to fully unlock the deposit’s potential. Commodity price volatility and inherent challenges of remote, Arctic mining operations also add a layer of risk.
Overall, the Tanbreez Project stands out as a high‐upside asset in the evolving rare earth landscape, offering a compelling proposition for investors looking to secure a supply chain independent of traditional sources, yet it remains subject to the risks typical of early‑stage mineral projects.