Aguia Resources Limited’s Phosphate Project DCF Analysis: Projected NPV of Up to AUD124M, Robust Free Cash Flow & Accelerated 3-Year Payback
Thursday, July 24, 2025
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8:32 am
AGR’s latest financial analysis of its phosphate project evaluates multiple operating alternatives—including own, leased, and used equipment. The DCF models forecast pre-tax NPVs up to approximately AUD 124m, with post-tax NPVs around AUD 61–78m and payback periods ranging from 1.35 to 3 years, supporting robust project economics.
AGR has released a detailed analysis evaluating several operating alternatives for its phosphate project, using a discounted cash flow model set at a 10% discount rate. The study compares five different equipment strategies ranging from using its own or leased equipment to engaging third‐party contractors. Under all scenarios, the project is forecast to generate robust revenues—with total annual sales estimated at around AUD 748.5 million—and strong operating performance, with EBITDA figures near AUD 298 million.
The report breaks down the total capital outlay into mine and plant investments, with initial CAPEX (including a 10% contingency) ranging from roughly AUD 26.86 million to AUD 32.20 million. Operating expenses, covering mining, logistics, and plant processing costs, translate into post‐tax net present values across the alternatives ranging from about AUD 61 to AUD 71 million. Notably, the alternative involving a contractor (referred to as Construsapper) achieves the shortest payback period of approximately 1.35 years after tax, while alternative scenarios based on owned or leased equipment have longer payback terms of up to around 3 years.
Technical assumptions include production rates based on a targeted output of 153.52 dry metric tonnes (dmt) multiplied by 1,000 for the higher-grade Reactive Natural Phosphate and 110.52 dmt x 1,000 for the lower-grade Mixed Natural Fertilizer. The calculations assume product grades of about 24.12% and 6.27% phosphorus pentoxide respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the project’s economics are most vulnerable to changes in product pricing; however, even with up to a 30% reduction in price forecasts, the net present values remain positive across all alternatives.
For beginner traders, these technical indicators suggest that AGR’s phosphate project exhibits healthy economics through low initial capital requirements, strong EBITDA margins, and attractive payback periods. The analysis implies that the project is positioned to generate steady cash flows and may offer resilient returns even if market conditions fluctuate. Overall, AGR’s investment evaluation highlights a well-structured approach with multiple strategic options to reduce risk and optimize long-term profitability in a rising phosphate price environment.